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> Posted by Tanaya Kilara, Financial Sector Analyst, CGAP

The following post was originally published on the YouthSave Blog.

The Center for Financial Inclusion at Accion recently released fascinating demographic data through the Mapping the Invisible Market project, as part of their Financial Inclusion 2020 campaign. It sketches a picture of the world in 2020 building on existing economic and demographic data, and draws implications for financial inclusion.

I do a lot of work on youth. Some of the data really caught my eye and even challenged some of my assumptions about priorities for youth financial services.

Where countries are in their development cycle affects their demographic opportunities. The Least-Developed-Countries (accounting for 27 percent of population growth over the next decade) are entering the first window of opportunity for a demographic dividend as fertility rates fall and the labor force grows faster than dependent populations, freeing resources for development. A second window of opportunity occurs when this expanded workforce ages and people stay in the workforce longer, saving and investing for extended retirement, resulting in more assets which raises the national income and leads to economic growth. Most developing countries, accounting for 68 percent of population growth over the next decade, fall into this category.

(Developed countries, take note: the demographic window of opportunity is largely closed.)

What does this mean for financial inclusion? One conclusion to draw from this is that countries need different financial inclusion strategies to address the needs and priorities of the age segments that are dominant at a particular time. For example, most middle-income countries like South Africa and Mexico are entering the second window of opportunity for a demographic dividend. With their youth population entering into the workforce in the near future, both countries will need to focus on the financial needs of mature adults. For poorer countries, like Nigeria and Pakistan, where the youth bulge will remain prominent for the future, we can anticipate that financial services targeted specifically for the young will be in higher demand and have more impact.

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